Will quantum computing, not AI, define our future?

The interaction between quantum and AI is the most exciting development in modern-day technologies. The hype cycle is focused on AI, but in the words of Lord (William) Hague, speaking recently at Imperial College: “Quantum computers can provide AI with the computational firepower needed to unlock their full potential. This means that if the country can lead on quantum computers, we can secure a lead on AI. And if we fall behind on quantum, we will likely fall behind on AI.”

The essence of quantum is that it isn’t binary – even today’s supercomputers are – but instead allows for multiple possibilities at the same time, making it ideal for optimisation problems. And the UK has the second largest number of quantum start-ups in the world, plus a £2.5bn quantum strategy.

There are two misapprehensions about quantum. The first is that it is prohibitively expensive because of the construction costs of a quantum computer and the environment in which it needs to be kept. In fact, companies can access time on one via the Cloud, with Microsoft Azure and AWS, among others, offering it as a service used by banks like HSBC and JPMorgan.

Second, quantum is only about computing, with the goal of creating a quantum computer within five to ten years that can break current encryption. In fact, quantum and quantum-inspired algorithms are already being used on classical computers, and the rather basic quantum computers – think of your first iPhone – that we have today.

Additionally, there is a large product suite associated with the technology. Quantum sensors, for instance, are one of the most exciting developments in the field of quantum physics. They are a magnitude more powerful than current ones in identifying minerals underground or coin-sized holes in undersea gas pipes and are likely to be commercialised by companies like Bosch within the next two years. And there are other quantum technologies being worked on in parallel, such as a quantum internet, all of which provide venture capitalists with investment opportunities.

Quantum in the finance sector

The financial services industry is already experimenting with quantum and machine learning.

In CB Insights’ recently published list of 100 Top 100 AI Companies, only two quantum companies are mentioned: Sandbox AG and Multiverse, one an American spin-out from Google, the other a European medium-sized start-up with UK offices.

Multiverse, which I advise, has worked with the Bank of Canada on cryptocurrency scenarios; with Credit Agricole CIB on counterparty credit rating downgrades and valuations of derivatives; with Spanish bank BBVA on maximising portfolio returns for a given level of risk, and a host of others.

Marco Pistoia, the managing director of JPMorgan Chase’s Global Technology Applied Research Center, is very clear on why the banking behemoth is seriously investing in quantum: it promises dramatic speed-up and accuracy improvements in optimisation, simulation and machine learning. Finance is awash with exponential complexity, and classical computers cannot deal with big datasets, let alone with the time constraints usual in the industry.

Quantum machine learning will also be useful in predicting financial crisesHSBC, meanwhile, recently announced quantum computing projects in cybersecurity and fraud detection, and became the first bank to join BT and Toshiba’s quantum-secured metro network (QSMN) to protect against cyberthreats. The QSMN connects the Canary Wharf headquarters with the global bank’s data centre in Berkshire, and will be used to trial experiments such as secure video communication and financial transactions.

Quantum machine learning will also be useful in predicting financial crises. Financial firms and regulators have access to large amounts of data, but analysing them intelligently within a usable time frame requires more computing power and AI than is currently available.

Consultancy Boston Consulting Group estimates that at maturity (projected to be around 2035), quantum technology can create US$450bn to US$850bn in net income for end users through a combination of new revenue generation and cost savings.

William Hague recently wrote a couple of reports with Tony Blair, urging the Labour and Conservative parties to make leadership in science and innovation, and AI especially, the New National Purpose. As he points out, quantum is a keystone technology. “You don’t need to understand how quantum works to understand how quantum will revolutionise our world,” were his parting words at the event at Imperial.

The mind-boggling possibilities of AI using quantum as its underpinning technology is one of the reasons I founded The City Quantum and AI Summit at the Mansion House. The annual event, now in its third year, brings together the City and the quantum community, with three principles: free for all; no jargon, no lingo, only understandable language; gender-balanced panels.

We welcome all of the CISI community to the Mansion House on Monday 2 October in a bid to ensure the City leverages its world-leading role by adopting this world-changing technology.

Lessons for the workforce from the oldest person in the room

In a low-growth, low-productivity, low-birth rate era, with the pensions time bomb ticking away, keeping people working longer is crucial. But older workers are often overlooked for recruitment or promotion due to prejudice and ageism. Karina Robinson writes about her own experience and says that the problem risks getting worse, as more than half of today’s 5-year-olds in developed economies will live to at least 100.

One day you glance up from your iPhone and you are the oldest person in the room. Dyed hair, a deliberate exercise regime and good genes are not enough to spare you. Gravity may now be your constant companion but there is a delight to being older than the CEO, the head of sales, the head of growth and all the other titles spread like confetti. Everyone assumes a wisdom born of experience.

At a recent two-day retreat with Multiverse Computing, a company whose board I advise, colleagues in their early 30s, and even middle-aged ones, sidled up to ask for career advice or how to deal with internal political concerns. The reading glasses I now must wear may be a pain, but they are also a useful accessory to fidget with while considering the dilemmas of employees at a quantum software firm.

The liberation from ego is not fully accomplished – presumably that Buddhist goal only happens when we are dead – but what the French call ‘je m’en foutisme’, which can be loosely translated as ‘I couldn’t give a damn’, is certainly prevalent. At a London School of Economics alumni gathering, having been given the post-lunch slot for a keynote, I figured there was only one way to wake up the audience: perform a haka like the New Zealand All Blacks. All 5 feet 2 inches of me (1.6 metres) did so; only one Argentine alumnus was able to identify my wild manoeuvrings on stage; no one slept through my speech.

The absurdity of the human condition, of our petty ambitions in a vast universe, come home to roost, as mortality feels more and more like a reality, rather than a distant dream. Making a fool of yourself becomes increasingly irrelevant in the grand scheme of things – good training for a non-executive director in asking the question that no one else dares bring up, or one that may, actually, turn out to be foolish. But one stupid question does not negate a long career.

Women over 50 are the fastest growing segment of the UK workforce, while globally in 2021 this group equalled 26% of all women, up from 22% a decade earlier, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). They are often overlooked for recruitment or promotion due to prejudice and ageism. Yet the problem also extends to ageing men, and it will only become worse. In the wealthiest nations, experts predict that more than half of today’s 5-year-olds will live to at least 100.

In a low growth, low productivity, low birth rate era, with the pensions time bomb ticking away, keeping people working longer is crucial. Britt Harris, CEO of the US’s largest endowment fund, recently told the FT that ageing executives should ‘move out of the way’ for younger generations. But the leader of the University of Texas and Texas A&M endowment system is missing a trick.

What we need is more people over 60 staying in work, not least because age diversity directly benefits performance via enriched knowledge, skills and social networks. At the LSE’s The Inclusion Initiative (TII), we’ve been considering how the workplace needs to change to attract and accommodate the older worker.

Rather than thinking only about “age-specific steps”, employers need to focus on benefits that accrue to all, but may be especially relevant to older workers, such as more flexibility and more training at work. The policies aimed at those with disabilities, like wellness programmes and meeting protocols (for example, making slides available before meetings) have benefited all employees, notes TII Researcher Daniel Jolles. Age-inclusive HR policies create more inclusive policies for all workers.

The ‘Great Retirement’ of 50+-year-olds saw the UK and other developed countries lose their older workforce post pandemic. In the UK, this movement has not been reversed and is a key factor in the worker shortage holding back the economy. According to think tank Phoenix Insights, 16 per cent of 50 to 64-year-olds that have left work since 2019 blame long-term sickness or disability for being economically inactive. Here, better provision of health support for long-term conditions is crucial, albeit unrealistic given the state of the NHS in the UK and of the straining health systems of other countries.

Meanwhile, 57 per cent of those in their late 50s say they are not looking for work because they are retired or looking after family. This rises to 68 per cent among those in their early 60s. My generation is burdened with taking care of ageing parents in their 80s and 90s, as older life is extended but with its consequent mental and physical vulnerabilities, while also increasingly taking care of grandchildren due to the astronomical cost of childcare and the two-working-parent family. “Employers urgently need to get serious about offering flexible working that fits alongside other pressures and priorities in people’s lives,” notes Catherine Foot, Director of Phoenix Insights.

One way for employers to tempt older workers back is through signing up to the Centre for Ageing Better’s Age-Friendly Employer Pledge. Signing the Age Pledge signals that the unique needs of an older workforce will be catered to – even if some of them are not dissimilar to those of other groups. When a firm celebrates Pride Month in June it is sending a signal to LGBT+ employees and potential employees that their unique needs will be catered to. It is not an onerous pledge. Measures include identifying a senior sponsor for age-inclusion, ensuring age is specifically named within Equality, Diversity and Inclusion policies, encouraging career development at all ages, and hiring age-positively.

An article in the Harvard Business Review focused on how multi-generational teams “bring together people with complementary abilities, skills, information and networks.” Given that we currently have a mind-boggling five generations in the workforce, this is not without age-related misconceptions and conflict, which need to be handled. But the interaction can be a game-changer. The article gives the example of the development of the first low-cost open-source metal 3D printer by the Open Sustainability Technology Lab at Michigan Technological University. Former director Joshua Pearce credits the team’s success to members’ willingness to learn from those of other generations, including “the technical skills of Gen X faculty, the software wizardry of Millennial graduate students, and the experienced resourcefulness of Boomer researchers.”

Seventy-six-year-old Elton John hobbled onto the stage at the Glastonbury music festival in June. As the aerial cameras panned over the crowd – so large it caused a Twitter storm – every young person, as well as the middle aged, sang along to 1970 hits like ‘Candle in the Wind.’ Most appropriate though, was ‘I’m still standing’, which he played from a sitting position.