Is Poland next?

A deformed perception of reality

President Putin’s troops are making slow progress in Ukraine but the lack of speed in no way detracts from what military minds see as a foregone conclusion: the physical destruction of a European nation.

In 2017, with a headline-dominating North Korea looking like the biggest threat to global stability, Ben Hodges, then Commanding General of US troops in Europe, told Karina’s Column: “Of course Russia, and its behaviour over the last three years [with invasions of Crimea and Ukraine] is the only nation that really possesses the ability, the capability, to destroy a European country or the United States with their nuclear weapons.”

“So in terms of an existential threat, that’s Russia,” he said, quickly adding a reassuring sentence: “Now it’s not likely, but that’s a part of it.”

Ukrainian bravery cannot stop, only delay, a war criminal with a superior arsenal and armed forces. Negotiations, unless Putin has changed his form, are but a cover for regrouping and keeping his opponents off balance.

We can only speculate at what the ultimate aim of the former KGB spy might be, but a devastated nation, living in fear of the Russian bear next door, is likely to be a satisfactory outcome. There is no need for an occupation, which would drain funds from state coffers. NATO becomes a de jure impossibility for Ukraine – as opposed to a de facto one, which had long been the case. The EU will not, and cannot take on, a country reduced to rubble with a desperate need for a Marshall Plan equivalent.

One of the outcomes of the war is that Russia, despite acquiring pariah status, has slotted back into the top echelon of nations. No more is China the only story.

As the West desperately tries to understand Putin’s motivations and where these will lead, one man who dealt with him as first a President and supporter, to then discover an implacable enemy, says the leaders in the West have never understood and will never understand that Putin has the “mentality of an exponent of organised crime,” Mafia boss rather than statesman.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former owner of petrol company Yukos, worked in parallel with the Russian President until his forays into political opposition landed him in jail for a decade.

In a recent interview with Italian newspaper Corriere, the London-based exile dismissed Putin apologists’ theory that his fear of Ukraine joining NATO led to the invasion.

“He hates NATO but does not fear it. Rather, he is now taken with a messianic mission. He is possessed, and you can see that in his having placed a [17.5m high] statue of Vladimir the Great [Prince of Novgorod, Grand Prince of Kiev, and ruler of Kievan Rus' from 980 to 1015] in front of the Kremlin.”

Khodorkovsky has no doubt the aggression against Ukraine is the fruit of a “deformed” perception of reality. After over two decades in power, the Russian President is surrounded by advisers who through fear dare not tell him the truth.

Putin has already threatened the use of nuclear weapons against the West, turned Belarus into a vassal state, and sent troops to Kazakhstan to quell anti-government unrest in January – it is unclear whether they have all returned home. The Russian Ministry of Defence says they have. At the very least, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is entirely in his debt.

The West, anxious about a Third World War, has been very clear that unless a NATO nation is attacked, they will not fight. Only two weeks ago, Russia bombed a military facility in Ukraine close enough to Poland for those on the border to see the flashes.

What would NATO do if Putin bombed some of the exported arms from NATO countries building up on the Polish side of the border? That is one of the few ways into Ukraine and into the hands of its army. Would the West prevaricate, arguing that the attack was about the weapons, not the country? That would be a mistake.

Khodorkovsky is not alone in believing that the West’s military inaction is encouraging Putin. He envisages a scenario where the Russian President will conquer Ukraine - guerrilla warfare will continue - and as the Russian economy worsens, he will launch a war against Poland, a similar distraction to the wars he launched in 2008 and 2014, but more in line with his Vladimir the Great-like ambitions.

At least one Polish mother has already contacted her London-based sister for assistance in extracting her conscription-aged son from the country as quickly as possible.

Putin’s heart-breaking and unprovoked war on Ukraine has had the welcome effect of uniting the West – Sweden is likely to announce it will join NATO by the spring. But the effects on his own country - turning Russians into pariahs, devastating the domestic economy on the back of sanctions and a brain drain, eliminating the last vestiges of a free society – sets the scene for more wars.

Meanwhile, the prognosis for the West’s economy, already suffering from inflationary forces, is dire. Wheat prices at record highs are bound to stay there. There will be no new planting in Ukraine. Oil prices are 70% higher than twelve months ago. with Western leaders like Boris Johnson going cap in hand to unseemly leaders of oil producing states to beg for increased production or deals. Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly refuses to take President Joe Biden’s calls, with the latter having been critical of MBS’s human rights record. Autocracies have been strengthened by Russia’s actions.

The erosion of social cohesion and livelihood crises were two of the top five 10-year risks in the 2022 World Economic Forum Global Risk report. The effects of the invasion can but exacerbate these. Governments will need to tread carefully, and apply support, as a toxic cost of living increase feeds into society.

What might happen if Putin does take the war into Poland? We don’t know. But we do know what a previous invasion of Poland I 1939 led to.