Quantum Matters: NATO’S Quantum Leap: Designing A Quantum Strategy

The day Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine the infamous 2019 words of President Macron – NATO is ‘brain dead’ – were crushed under its tracks. President Putin failed to conquer Ukraine. He succeeded in reinvigorating NATO, both geopolitically and technologically.

Evidence of the latter was clear over a couple of brainstorming days to define NATO’s Quantum Strategy. Your columnist joined entrepreneurs, academics, military suppliers and NATO personnel at the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen and at NATO headquarters in Brussels to give their input to the strategy document, due to be published this autumn.  

The Alliance is thriving on the strong justification of its defensive purpose, with Finland a new member, Sweden in the waiting room, and even historically neutral Ireland reconsidering its stance on not joining NATO in a consultative forum this month. 

What Mark Leonard, Director of think tank ECFR calls ‘The Age of Unpeace’ – of submarine incursions to map infrastructure, cyberattacks on national health services that cannot be traced to a state actor, political destabilisation through social media – is a persistent reminder of the threats.  

As a result, NATO has accelerated its move into what it calls Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT), with strategies on everything from AI to Space and Quantum. It aims to leverage its convening power to foster innovation and ensure the West and its allies like Australia and Japan retain a technological lead, a strategy called Foster and Protect.  

At the April 2022 Foreign Ministers’ meeting, it approved a charter for the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) with its initial test centre and accelerator sites. Additionally, 22 member states agreed to participate in the €1bn NATO Innovation Fund, the first multi-sovereign venture capital fund, which is set to make its initial investments at the end of 2023.  

The US Department of Defense is currently seeking permission from Congress to join it. Its quasi-threatening wording reveals how strategically significant the DOD sees this area: “Allowing the US Department of Defense to participate in the NATO DIANA initiative would support implementation of some important elements of the NATO agenda. Absent new statutory authority enacted as a result of this critical legislative proposal, the United States will not be able to participate in DIANA or other vital, successor, jointly-funded NATO R&D programs.” 

An added sense of urgency comes from the recent take off in generative AI, set to transform the world, amid warnings about its capacity for harm to the point of human extinction.

There is a similar narrative to quantum technologies. They are currently only making a difference at the margin in, for instance, optimising supply chains or the preventive maintenance of machines. However, as the science advances, and an estimated $36bn in investments from governments, plus the private sector piles in, the probability of radical breakthroughs rises. 

These range from quantum computers that could break encryption – the issue that gathers the most column inches – to quantum sensors that might detect, say, the UK’s Trident Submarine armed with its nuclear weapons.

One of the most interesting aspects of quantum is the cross over between military and civilian uses – quantum sensors for situational awareness use the same technology as those used for medical diagnosis, for instance making them profitable on various fronts. Four industries (automotive, chemicals, financial services and life sciences) are likely to see the earliest impact from quantum computing with gains of up to $1.3 trillion in value by 2035,when the industry is expected to reach maturity, according to McKinsey. 

This harks back to the civilian benefits accruing from DARPA, the US defence think tank which originally invented the internet mainly so that satellites could communicate. We are only at the starting line in understanding how quantum technologies will be used to change the world. 

What is clear is that NATO and its partners need to focus on four areas in their bid to maintain advantage. 

Firstly, support the commercial ventures which are driving development. In the US, around $4bn of public money (excluding classified military investments) is going into quantum, and a close equivalent of $3.7bn in private funding, while there are over 310 startups, as well as blue chip behemoths like Google and IBM involved.

Focus on near-wins to help propagate quantum literacy, as well as encourage funding of the industry. Quantum sensing is among the most promising technologies, with companies from Bosch to Multiverse Computing working on the hardware and software, respectively. The September 22 bombing of the Nord Stream gas pipelines is a clear user case: our current sensors do not have the capacity to detect a coin-sized hole through which gas escapes from 5km away. Quantum sensors are likely to be able to once further developed, while also being an independent back up for GPS. Our infrastructure, including smart phones, is dependent on the global navigation satellite systems and therefore rendered vulnerable.  

Keep clarity on regulation. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in the US is developing a framework for quantum cybersecurity standards, due out in 2024. Regulation from bodies like this one, or the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), are the only way to force firms to invest in quantum risk reduction because many currently baulk at spending funds and management time when they lack a sense of urgency.  

Lastly, use NATO’s soft power to bolster cooperation among friendly nations, be it through helping finance international consortiums in quantum or simply using its convening powers to bring together participants. The Alliance has a crucial, unifying role to play in an era of national industrial competition, with export controls harming allied members as well as enemy countries.  

You can’t plan an epiphany, but that is exactly what we have had in AI. We must be better prepared for a quantum leap, and NATO has a key role to play.

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Karina Robinson is CEO of Redcliffe Advisory, Founder of The City Quantum and AI Summit and Senior Adviser to Multiverse Computing. This Comment does not represent NATO policy. 

Quantum Matters: Dystopia or utopia? Action needed on D&I in quantum

Diversity and Inclusion in the quantum ecosphere is abysmal.

The numbers speak for themselves. In the private sector, only 1 in 54 of all applicants for female roles are female, while almost 80% of quantum companies do not have a senior female figure. There is no data on sexual orientation or ethnicity.

In an industry that is forecast to be worth $8.6bn in 2027, we cannot afford to miss out on talent. Especially when that industry is going to help solve some of the world’s most intractable environmental and medical problems. D&I is key to accelerating innovation and creativity, and avoiding group think, as evidenced in a report from The Inclusion Initiative at the London School of Economics.

Is there cause for hope? Definitely. Firstly, 62% of current employees in quantum want their employers to do more to increase diversity, according to recruitment firm Quantum Futures.

Secondly, two new organisations are focused on change. DiviQ was formed a few months ago, with industry luminaries like whurley and Denise Ruffner on board. Its mission is to foster a diverse quantum workforce through supporting those from underrepresented backgrounds with education, networking opportunities and mentorship. In an earlier incarnation, it paired over 400 quantum students, graduates and young professionals with mentors in the quantum space.

Meanwhile, The Inclusion Initiative at the London School of Economics, an institute that specialises in creating inclusive workplaces in financial and professional services through behavioural science and data, now has a new Deep Tech hub with a focus on quantum.

Thirdly, the quantum industry can learn from the finance industry, which is far from perfection, but has taken great strides in recruiting, retaining and promoting diverse staff, and changing the composition of its Boards.

In The City Quantum Summit Briefing on D&I, published earlier this month by The Inclusion Initiative (TII), participants in a brainstorming lunch at the Summit shared their advice from a lifetime of seeking to change their respective industries.

“Collecting data on diversity, benchmarking and fair hiring processes is crucial to ensure equal representation early in the hiring pipeline,” said Connor Teague, Founder of Quantum Futures. “Companies need to focus on unbiased job descriptions and interview processes.”

Cecily Josten, the researcher from TII who authored the report, noted that relying less on an applicant’s background and more on task-based assessments would aid recruiters in promoting a more diverse talent pool.

Bringing in leaders from other industries is helpful, pointed out Teague. “Hiring non-traditional quantum leaders to the business – when the co-founders step to the side and bring in a leader from a different industry – the business tends to stop hiring versions of themselves! I’ve seen great success with quantum businesses that have done this.”

Denise Wilson OBE, a leader who has transformed the composition of FTSE-350 Boards – 40% are women, compared to only a decade ago when 152 of the companies had no women on boards at all – was clear that “the power of publication should not be underestimated, and transparency drives change.”

Armed only with a target to increase the number of women on Boards, as CEO of the FTSE Women Leaders Review Wilson used embarrassment and peer pressure as a tool, publishing a list of Boards that were falling behind the new norm – as well as a barrage of social media highlighting the best and the worst performers, and supportive government guidance.

“Improving diversity means a multi-year, multi-layered approach, it requires systemic change and taking on a system that has worked very well for some but excludes others. D&I must be owned and held accountable at the Board level and talked about like any other business-critical issue,” she said.

Wilson noted the need to “lift the lid on every people process, pay, bonus allocations, retention, performance evaluations and the like.” A recent study of Gen Z by consultancy Oliver Wyman found that 30% of women looking to switch jobs cited better advancement and growth opportunities as a reason to leave a job, and wanted greater clarity about internal promotions, suggesting they see the current processes as unfair.

For Denise Ruffner, the President of Women in Quantum, a Founder at DiviQ, and a long-standing campaigner for a more diverse Deep Tech sector, culture is key. “Organisations need to pay attention to their culture and cultivate an environment where different voices and viewpoints are not only heard but encouraged and considered,” she said, pointing out that retention of highly skilled employees is a big issue in the industry.

The Oliver Wyman study noted that Gen Z (of all genders) expect fair pay, inclusive policies and transparency, or they quit. More than 60% of the 10,000 respondents in the US and the UK are looking to job hop despite an uncertain economy – they view work as transactional and “want to control their career paths, pushing hard or slowing down as needed to accommodate family, reduce stress, or pursue outside interests.”

Incorporating a degree of flexibility at work is another factor useful to encourage D&I. The average number of days worked from home or remotely is currently stabilising at around 25% of total working days. Flexible work policies can reduce quitting rates by 35%, according to recent work by Professor Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University.

LSE Professor Grace Lordan, Founder of TII, called for fair opportunities, visibility and voice, which depends on inclusive leaders who do not hire based on their own affinity, but hire for diversity and for perspectives that they do not yet have. “That really requires a change in ego in our leaders and a change of perspective towards a diversity mindset.”

Industry legend whurley was adamant that commitment and culture are crucial: “Commitment because hiring for DEI isn’t without its challenges and you can’t give up if you face a few along the way. Culture because that’s the #1 key to DEI in a company. Without a culture that embraces and celebrates differences you simply won’t succeed. DEI has to be built into your company’s DNA.”

Ultimately, D&I is much more than just a ‘nice to have’ in a transformational industry like quantum technology. A warning lies in what is currently happening with AI, and what happened with social media.

Whurley put it very clearly. “Quantum will change computing more in the next ten years than it has changed in the last century. Providing equal access and equal opportunities will make the difference between humanity’s future being diverse or dystopian.”

Karina Robinson is Senior Adviser to Multiverse Computing, Co-Founder of The Inclusion Initiative, and Founder of The City Quantum and AI Summit

Why the Benefits of Age Diversity Need to be Shouted from the Rooftops

Speech delivered on Champion Age Diversity Day

Age has been in the news.

In the UK, we just celebrated the Platinum Jubilee of our queen, now 96-years old, and still delivering value in the workplace. In her case, that happens to be the balcony on Buckingham Palace.

In the US we have the oldest man to be sworn in as President at age 78. At age 29, Joe Biden was one of the youngest people ever elected to the United States Senate. He may be domestically unpopular - hugely unpopular – but I am not alone in being grateful that an experienced statesman is in charge during the biggest crisis to face the West since the Cold War.

And on a June weekend, we saw a critically injured 36-year-old beat a 23-year-old at Roland Garros to walk away with his 14th French Open win, and thus be called the GREATEST OF ALL TIME, the best tennis player of his generation: Rafael Nadal, with two grand slams more than his closest opponents.

Yet we live in a world that worships youth. That dismisses the middle aged and the old. A world where if you are over 50, its going to be a nightmare trying to find a new job. And chances are, if you are employed, with stagflation, recession, whatever is coming, your employer is more likely to dismiss you if you are over 50, than if you are younger.

AGE DISCRIMINATION EXISTS AND ITS THRIVING

If I say to you, youth and innovation, youth and entrepreneurship, you won’t bat an eyelid.

If I say to you, an older worker and innovation, older worker and entrepreneurship…well, it doesn’t exactly slip off the tongue, does it?

In fact, I have my own story of age discrimination. In a bid to cut back on the household bills, I thought I would go grey, give up those boring visits to the hairdresser – boring and expensive – every six weeks. I bought a grey wig, to see what I would look like. Let me show you, as I showed my family.

(At this point in the speech, Karina put on a grey wig)

I admit it is a cheap, nasty wig. But what was even more horrific was my 21-year old son’s reaction: “Mama, you are supposed to be at the forefront of social change in the City, of Diversity and Inclusion. If you let yourself go grey, you won’t have any credibility.”

Let me repeat that:’ you won’t have any credibility. ‘

The conclusion is that if you are older, you don’t look like an agent of change, you don’t look like an entrepreneur, you don’t look like an innovator.

WHAT IS THE REALITY?

Let me give you 3 doses of reality.

First. The average age of a successful start-up founder is 45, according to a 2020 research study by Economica. Note the word ‘successful’.

Let me quote: ‘Among those who have started a firm, older entrepreneurs have a substantially higher success rate. Our evidence points to entrepreneurial performance rising sharply with age before cresting in the late fifties. If you were faced with two entrepreneurs and knew nothing about them besides their age, you would do better, on average, betting on the older one.’

Second dose of reality. The future of work. There is a lot of talk about automation taking away jobs from human beings. And about the older generation not being digital natives. We are digital immigrants. All true.

However, according to a study by The Inclusion Initiative at the London School of Economics, brains and heart win in the future of work.

Jobs that require abstract thinking, people engagement and soft skills are less likely to be automated, according to research. The authors also find that combining ‘heart’ with ‘brains’ will future-proof your job further. ‘Heart’ relates to jobs that involve soft skills and are high people engagement.

Now – and what I am going to say ain’t no research study – if I look at my peer group, we don’t need to prove ourselves anymore. We’re comfortable with our faults, with our qualities. We’ve either made it or we haven’t. We don’t take things as personally. We enjoy laughing at our own absurdities.

In a multigenerational workspace, that lack of ego, that lack of the need for struggle, can be very helpful.

Third dose of reality.

We have a vast, skills shortage in the Western world. Labour markets are in flux from the pandemic fallout and technological upheaval. Up to a billion people will need reskilling and life-long training by 2030, according to the OECD. We need more carers; we need more marketing executives; we need more quantum scientists.

And in parallel, on the plus side, we have a healthier population of people over 50, over 60, over 70, some of whom want to work longer, some of whom must, due to financial necessity, and many of whom will reinvent themselves.

As a microcosm of my third ‘dose of reality’, let me give you an example I have become very familiar with. The world of quantum computing. I won’t bore you with the details of how a finance and politics journalist has reinvented herself as a quantum guru – quantum involves geniuses with double PhDs, molecular simulation and Star Trek scenarios. Way out of my comfort zone.

In this ecosphere, the CEO of Google’s quantum spin out SandboxAQ, recently said, “The number one concern we have going forward is the skills gap. When people ask me, “what keeps me up at night?” – that’s what keeps me up at night – the lack of a talent pipeline in quantum and also lack of diversity in that pipeline.”

SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY

What’s Jack Hidary’s solution? Work with universities to increase the pipeline. But also work with what he calls the “existing adult working population”. While at Google, they trained numerous staff in various quantum and other advanced math courses; they trained customers; they upskilled engineers and scientists that were already- ALREADY – in the workforce.

THAT’s the biggest opportunity. THAT’s the key to the skills shortage. Upskill, training, reinvention in any shape.

In Top Gun Maverick, the much-publicised blockbuster, ageing star Tom Cruise is dismissed by a younger protagonist with the words, “The future is coming, and you’re not in it”. Who can doubt that he, at 58 years old, saves the day?!

Not only are we, the older generation, the future. WE are the key. WE are the opportunity. WE are the solution.

This is the keynote speech delivered by Karina Robinson, Co-Director of The Inclusion Initiative, on Champion Age Diversity Day, as part of a panel on Valuing Age Diversity in the Workplace.

It was sponsored by The Age Diversity Forum and Hansuke Consultants.

Companies cannot afford to be left behind in the quantum revolution

You do not need to be a Stem genius to succeed in finance and tech